Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -333 NCSU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +9 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -7.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -4.9 (-13.9) | 146.9 (-21.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -5.2 (-14.2) | 145.5 (-20.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -4.7 (-13.7) | 146.5 (-21.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -4.2 (-13.2) | 143.1 (-18.1) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#14) | 9.8 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#7) | 1.96 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.36 (#9) | 2.31 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#13) | 0.548 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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