Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -188 CLEM +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLEM +8 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -4.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -2.3 (-10.3) | 147.1 (-11.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -2.8 (-10.8) | 144.5 (-8.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -2.2 (-10.2) | 146.2 (-10.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -2.8 (-10.8) | 146.4 (-10.4) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | CLEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#11) | 13.2 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#16) | 2.16 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#16) | 2.85 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#20) | 0.590 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | CLEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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