Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +40 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -22.8 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -18.6 (+21.4) | 129.3 (+2.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -16.8 (+23.2) | 125.5 (+6.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -21.3 (+18.7) | 129.7 (+2.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -20.7 (+19.3) | 130.1 (+1.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-10 |
| Home | 17-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 23.3 (#1) | 0.5 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.71 (#3) | -0.14 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.34 (#3) | -0.23 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#2) | 0.496 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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