Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SC +110 ORE -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +14 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | ORE -0.4 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SC -0.2 (-14.2) | 137.4 (+22.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -1.1 (-12.9) | 134.8 (+25.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SC -0.2 (-14.2) | 136.9 (+23.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SC -0.7 (-14.7) | 136.6 (+23.4) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SC | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#61) | 9.7 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#8) | 1.76 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#9) | 2.06 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#44) | 0.562 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SC | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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