Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -188 MSU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +16 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -2.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -2.5 (+13.5) | 138.0 (+16.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -3.1 (+12.9) | 138.0 (+16.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -3.5 (+12.5) | 138.7 (+15.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -2.5 (+13.5) | 139.4 (+14.6) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2025 | MSU 74 – 58 UNC |
| Nov 28, 2024 | MSU 94 – 91 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 18.3 (#8) | 15.5 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#5) | 1.82 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#4) | 2.55 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#8) | 0.572 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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