All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
(5) Wisconsin Badgers
61 72
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(12) James Madison Dukes
Barclays Center (Neutral) · March 23, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread WIS -4.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money WIS -200 / JMU +155
Model Predictions
Spread Total WIS win
Actual JMU +11 133 Lost
Massey WIS -4.6 (-15.6)
Massey Totals 150.6 (-17.6)
Bradley-Terry 52%
Weighted B-T 61%
Baseline Plus ML WIS -4.6 (-15.6) 146.4 (-13.4) 65%
Model 4 ML WIS -4.7 (-15.7) 143.0 (-10.0) 61%
Model 3 ML WIS -4.5 (-15.5) 146.6 (-13.6) 65%
Baseline ML WIS -4.3 (-15.3) 147.5 (-14.5) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings WIS JMU
Overall 22-14 32-4
Conference 11-9 15-3
Home 14-3 14-1
Away 3-9 12-2
Neutral 5-2 6-1
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 74.7 81.9
Avg Pts Against 70.0 69.9
Massey 14.1 (#21) 9.4 (#59)
Bradley-Terry 2.19 (#25) 2.11 (#31)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.76 (#23) 2.33 (#42)
RPI 0.585 (#37) 0.563 (#61)
Shooting & Four Factors WIS JMU
FG% 46.3% 47.5%
3PT% 34.8% 36.4%
REB / G 33.9 37.9
OREB / G 10.1 11.2
AST / TO 1.31 1.53
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.4% 54.4%
TOV% 14.6% 14.7%
ORB% 30.5% 31.8%
FT Rate 25.4% 24.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.2% 46.7%
Opp TOV% 16.9% 19.7%
DRB% 75.6% 72.4%
Opp FT Rate 24.1% 25.6%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.