Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -111 COLO -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +2 | 202 | Lost |
| Massey | COLO -0.8 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (+39.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -0.8 (-1.2) | 156.6 (+45.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -0.7 (-1.3) | 157.5 (+44.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -1.4 (-0.6) | 157.8 (+44.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -1.0 (-1.0) | 155.8 (+46.2) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#29) | 13.6 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#27) | 2.06 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#17) | 2.52 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#31) | 0.589 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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