Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -275 OAK +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -6.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -4.8 (+1.2) | 144.9 (+7.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -6.1 (-0.1) | 145.2 (+6.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -5.0 (+1.0) | 145.8 (+6.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -5.0 (+1.0) | 143.9 (+8.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-15 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 10-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#58) | 3.2 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#44) | 1.02 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#50) | 0.86 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#94) | 0.570 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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