Hmm, you're so pretty, not to talk to you would be a crime. "Baby, Baby" - The Vibrators
(2) Iowa State Cyclones
69 72
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(3) Illinois Fighting Illini
TD Garden (Neutral) · March 29, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ISU -1.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Under
Money ISU -115 / ILL -111
Model Predictions
Spread Total ISU win
Actual ILL +3 141 Lost
Massey ISU -2.5 (-5.5)
Massey Totals 149.7 (-8.7)
Bradley-Terry 56%
Weighted B-T 52%
Baseline Plus ML ISU -2.8 (-5.8) 143.3 (-2.3) 54%
Model 4 ML ISU -2.8 (-5.8) 142.6 (-1.6) 56%
Model 3 ML ISU -4.0 (-7.0) 144.4 (-3.4) 62%
Baseline ML ISU -4.5 (-7.5) 143.7 (-2.7) 56%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ISU ILL
Overall 29-8 29-9
Conference 13-5 14-6
Home 18-0 15-3
Away 5-5 6-5
Neutral 6-3 8-1
Last 5 5-0 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.3 83.4
Avg Pts Against 61.5 73.3
Massey 20.2 (#6) 17.7 (#11)
Bradley-Terry 3.03 (#5) 2.77 (#8)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.59 (#6) 3.52 (#7)
RPI 0.605 (#16) 0.618 (#11)
Shooting & Four Factors ISU ILL
FG% 46.5% 47.6%
3PT% 35.6% 35.3%
REB / G 33.7 41.0
OREB / G 10.7 12.8
AST / TO 1.52 1.26
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.2% 54.4%
TOV% 15.4% 15.0%
ORB% 31.4% 36.2%
FT Rate 24.7% 27.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.3% 47.9%
Opp TOV% 25.7% 12.3%
DRB% 70.6% 73.6%
Opp FT Rate 24.5% 19.0%

Game Analysis

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