Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ISU -115 ILL -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +3 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -2.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -2.9 (-5.9) | 146.4 (-5.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -1.5 (-4.5) | 144.6 (-3.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -1.6 (-4.6) | 145.7 (-4.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -2.2 (-5.2) | 146.3 (-5.3) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 18-0 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 20.2 (#6) | 17.7 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.03 (#5) | 2.77 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#6) | 3.52 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#16) | 0.618 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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