Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
(1) UConn Huskies
75 58
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(9) Northwestern Wildcats
Barclays Center (Neutral) · March 24, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread CONN -13.5 Home covered
O/U 135.5 Under
Money CONN -1400 / NU +700
Model Predictions
Spread Total CONN win
Actual CONN +17 133 Won
Massey CONN -11.6 (+5.4)
Massey Totals 139.5 (-6.5)
Bradley-Terry 86%
Weighted B-T 87%
Baseline Plus ML CONN -10.6 (+6.4) 137.4 (-4.4) 86%
Model 4 ML CONN -11.9 (+5.1) 133.3 (-0.3) 86%
Model 3 ML CONN -11.5 (+5.5) 139.3 (-6.3) 86%
Baseline ML CONN -9.7 (+7.3) 140.0 (-7.0) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CONN NU
Overall 37-3 22-12
Conference 18-2 12-8
Home 17-0 15-2
Away 8-3 4-7
Neutral 12-0 3-3
Last 5 5-0 2-3
Streak W13 L1
Avg Pts For 81.4 73.3
Avg Pts Against 63.4 69.1
Massey 22.2 (#3) 10.6 (#51)
Bradley-Terry 3.87 (#1) 2.02 (#37)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.55 (#2) 2.62 (#31)
RPI 0.627 (#5) 0.556 (#73)
Shooting & Four Factors CONN NU
FG% 49.7% 45.8%
3PT% 36.7% 39.3%
REB / G 38.7 31.5
OREB / G 11.7 8.5
AST / TO 1.90 1.79
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.2% 53.0%
TOV% 14.8% 13.4%
ORB% 36.6% 25.8%
FT Rate 24.3% 22.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.8% 51.4%
Opp TOV% 16.3% 19.1%
DRB% 73.3% 71.9%
Opp FT Rate 23.6% 28.4%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.