Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -1400 NU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -11.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -9.7 (+7.3) | 139.2 (-6.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -9.2 (+7.8) | 135.2 (-2.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -9.7 (+7.3) | 138.0 (-5.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -8.7 (+8.3) | 139.8 (-6.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 12-8 |
| Home | 17-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 22.2 (#3) | 10.6 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.87 (#1) | 2.02 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.55 (#2) | 2.62 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#5) | 0.556 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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