Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -278 PUR +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +15 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -1.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -1.5 (+13.5) | 142.1 (-7.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -1.9 (+13.1) | 141.6 (-6.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -1.9 (+13.1) | 140.6 (-5.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -0.8 (+14.2) | 140.6 (-5.6) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 34-5 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 17-3 |
| Home | 17-0 | 16-0 |
| Away | 8-3 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 23.9 (#1) | 22.7 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.17 (#1) | 3.99 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.90 (#1) | 4.88 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#2) | 0.679 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.95 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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