Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -200 DUKE +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +3 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -4.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (-27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -3.6 (-6.6) | 130.0 (-25.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -3.0 (-6.0) | 126.8 (-21.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -2.0 (-5.0) | 131.1 (-26.1) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -3.4 (-6.4) | 131.3 (-26.3) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Apr 6, 2025 | HOU 70 – 67 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 17-0 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 23.5 (#1) | 18.6 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#3) | 2.57 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.33 (#3) | 3.35 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#2) | 0.603 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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