Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -260 HOU +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -2.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -1.9 (-4.9) | 131.1 (+5.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -1.6 (-4.6) | 127.3 (+9.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -1.2 (-4.2) | 128.7 (+8.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -1.9 (-4.9) | 131.1 (+5.9) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 30, 2024 | DUKE 54 – 51 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 35-5 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 19-1 |
| Home | 17-0 | 16-1 |
| Away | 10-1 | 10-0 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 58.6 |
| Massey | 28.1 (#1) | 25.3 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.46 (#3) | 4.42 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.63 (#4) | 5.68 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.657 (#5) | 0.657 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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