Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
(6) Texas Tech Red Raiders
67 80
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(11) NC State Wolfpack
PPG Paints Arena (Neutral) · March 22, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread TTU -4.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money TTU -200 / NCSU +155
Model Predictions
Spread Total TTU win
Actual NCSU +13 147 Lost
Massey TTU -4.1 (-17.1)
Massey Totals 147.7 (-0.7)
Bradley-Terry 59%
Weighted B-T 59%
Baseline Plus ML TTU -2.1 (-15.1) 142.2 (+4.8) 51%
Model 4 ML TTU -3.0 (-16.0) 142.9 (+4.1) 45%
Model 3 ML TTU -3.1 (-16.1) 143.6 (+3.4) 64%
Baseline ML TTU -2.8 (-15.8) 145.2 (+1.8) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TTU NCSU
Overall 23-11 26-15
Conference 11-7 9-11
Home 15-2 12-5
Away 4-6 4-7
Neutral 4-3 10-3
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 75.3 75.6
Avg Pts Against 69.6 71.8
Massey 13.2 (#28) 9.1 (#63)
Bradley-Terry 2.12 (#30) 1.75 (#54)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.45 (#38) 2.08 (#54)
RPI 0.572 (#47) 0.535 (#107)
Shooting & Four Factors TTU NCSU
FG% 45.3% 45.0%
3PT% 36.5% 34.7%
REB / G 35.0 35.0
OREB / G 9.9 10.4
AST / TO 1.32 1.34
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.8% 50.8%
TOV% 16.5% 13.7%
ORB% 30.2% 28.6%
FT Rate 26.9% 23.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.1% 50.5%
Opp TOV% 17.1% 18.0%
DRB% 69.7% 70.7%
Opp FT Rate 18.9% 23.4%

Game Analysis

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