Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -200 NCSU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +13 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | TTU -4.1 (-17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -2.0 (-15.0) | 145.5 (+1.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -2.7 (-15.7) | 143.4 (+3.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -2.0 (-15.0) | 144.4 (+2.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -1.6 (-14.6) | 146.4 (+0.6) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#28) | 9.1 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#30) | 1.75 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#38) | 2.08 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#47) | 0.535 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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