Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -600 DUQ +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +26 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -10.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -7.0 (+19.0) | 143.7 (+8.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -8.1 (+17.9) | 143.8 (+8.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -7.6 (+18.4) | 142.7 (+9.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -7.0 (+19.0) | 142.0 (+10.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 17.1 (#13) | 7.0 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#7) | 1.68 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#7) | 1.91 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#10) | 0.591 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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