Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | FAU -188 NU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +12 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -2.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -1.7 (-13.7) | 145.3 (-3.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -1.7 (-13.7) | 141.3 (+0.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -2.2 (-14.2) | 143.8 (-1.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -1.6 (-13.6) | 144.0 (-2.0) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#36) | 10.3 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#42) | 1.95 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#35) | 2.55 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#15) | 0.549 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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