Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -1600 WKU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +18 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -14.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -11.6 (+6.4) | 152.7 (+3.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -11.8 (+6.2) | 152.3 (+3.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -12.0 (+6.0) | 154.4 (+1.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -11.5 (+6.5) | 152.8 (+3.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#15) | 2.3 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#9) | 0.27 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#10) | 0.51 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#14) | 0.519 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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