Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | MSST +105 MSU -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +18 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -2.4 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -0.9 (-17.1) | 130.8 (-10.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -1.6 (-16.4) | 131.0 (-11.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -2.2 (-15.8) | 131.1 (-11.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -1.8 (-16.2) | 129.4 (-9.4) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#33) | 14.9 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#43) | 1.71 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#28) | 2.39 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#60) | 0.566 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.