Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | TENN -10000 SPU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +34 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -20.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -16.2 (+17.8) | 131.5 (+0.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -17.1 (+16.9) | 131.3 (+0.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -16.0 (+18.0) | 132.7 (-0.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -17.0 (+17.0) | 132.2 (-0.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 63.8 |
| Massey | 18.8 (#7) | -1.5 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#6) | -0.21 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#6) | -0.41 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#5) | 0.505 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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