That man could give a fuck about the grin on your face as you walk by randy as a goat. "Never Say Never" - Romeo Void
(5) Saint Mary's Gaels
66 75
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(12) Grand Canyon Lopes
Spokane Arena (Neutral) · March 23, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SMC -5.5 Away covered
O/U 131.5 Over
Money SMC -250 / GCU +188
Model Predictions
Spread Total SMC win
Actual GCU +9 141 Lost
Massey SMC -5.3 (-14.3)
Massey Totals 131.1 (+9.9)
Bradley-Terry 47%
Weighted B-T 46%
Baseline Plus ML SMC -3.9 (-12.9) 131.3 (+9.7) 62%
Model 4 ML SMC -5.1 (-14.1) 129.8 (+11.2) 60%
Model 3 ML SMC -3.4 (-12.4) 131.6 (+9.4) 65%
Baseline ML SMC -4.7 (-13.7) 132.5 (+8.5) 53%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SMC GCU
Overall 26-8 30-5
Conference 15-1 17-3
Home 14-4 16-0
Away 9-0 8-3
Neutral 3-4 5-2
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.0 77.8
Avg Pts Against 60.2 66.8
Massey 15.1 (#18) 9.8 (#53)
Bradley-Terry 2.07 (#34) 2.19 (#24)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.40 (#39) 2.57 (#30)
RPI 0.586 (#35) 0.602 (#17)
Shooting & Four Factors SMC GCU
FG% 46.6% 45.8%
3PT% 35.5% 34.4%
REB / G 38.9 37.8
OREB / G 12.9 11.7
AST / TO 1.57 0.95
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.1% 52.0%
TOV% 16.0% 17.8%
ORB% 39.0% 34.6%
FT Rate 19.1% 34.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.1% 45.9%
Opp TOV% 16.6% 19.9%
DRB% 77.6% 70.4%
Opp FT Rate 22.9% 24.6%

Game Analysis

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