Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -250 GCU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +9 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -5.3 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -3.0 (-12.0) | 131.5 (+9.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -4.0 (-13.0) | 129.7 (+11.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -3.2 (-12.2) | 130.5 (+10.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -3.3 (-12.3) | 131.8 (+9.2) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-0 |
| Away | 9-0 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#18) | 9.8 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#34) | 2.19 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#39) | 2.57 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#35) | 0.602 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 34.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.