Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | PUR -5000 FDU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +5 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -23.9 (-28.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -16.4 (-21.4) | 144.8 (-23.8) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -17.5 (-22.5) | 141.5 (-20.5) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -18.6 (-23.6) | 140.2 (-19.2) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -18.3 (-23.3) | 143.8 (-22.8) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#9) | -7.4 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#4) | -1.26 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.08 (#3) | -1.53 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#6) | 0.449 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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