Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -138 FAU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +1 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -0.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -0.2 (-1.2) | 150.5 (-19.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -0.3 (-1.3) | 149.0 (-18.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -0.5 (-0.5) | 150.7 (-19.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -0.1 (-1.1) | 148.7 (-17.7) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MEM 92 – 65 FAU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | FAU 89 – 78 MEM |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MEM 84 – 65 FAU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MEM 90 – 62 FAU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FAU 92 – 84 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 18-2 |
| Home | 13-2 | 17-0 |
| Away | 7-5 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 12.7 (#25) | 13.3 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#20) | 2.83 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.30 (#12) | 3.02 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#20) | 0.609 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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