Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | TEX -1400 COLG +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +20 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -13.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -11.3 (+8.7) | 146.9 (-4.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -11.8 (+8.2) | 144.1 (-2.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -10.5 (+9.5) | 147.2 (-5.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -10.6 (+9.4) | 147.5 (-5.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 17-1 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 11-4 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#6) | 4.2 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#6) | 0.56 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#6) | 0.87 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#15) | 0.547 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 13.9% |
Game Analysis
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