Four young chiquitas in Omaha waitin' for the band to return from the show. "We're an American Band" - Grand Funk Railroad
(5) San Diego State Aztecs
75 52
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(13) Furman Paladins
Kia Center (Neutral) · March 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -5.0 Home covered
O/U 135.0 Under
Money SDSU -200 / FUR +175
Model Predictions
Spread Total SDSU win
Actual SDSU +23 127 Won
Massey SDSU -6.8 (+16.2)
Massey Totals 141.9 (-14.9)
Bradley-Terry 83%
Weighted B-T 86%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -8.1 (+14.9) 137.6 (-10.6) 79%
Model 4 ML SDSU -7.5 (+15.5) 138.4 (-11.4) 77%
Model 3 ML SDSU -8.1 (+14.9) 140.6 (-13.6) 80%
Baseline ML SDSU -7.4 (+15.6) 138.3 (-11.3) 78%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SDSU FUR
Overall 32-7 28-8
Conference 15-3 15-3
Home 15-1 14-2
Away 8-2 8-3
Neutral 9-4 6-3
Last 5 5-0 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.5 79.2
Avg Pts Against 63.6 71.4
Massey 13.1 (#21) 6.3 (#89)
Bradley-Terry 2.73 (#11) 1.15 (#82)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.08 (#16) 1.22 (#92)
RPI 0.634 (#5) 0.564 (#57)
Shooting & Four Factors SDSU FUR
FG% 44.1% 47.4%
3PT% 34.2% 34.4%
REB / G 35.8 35.1
OREB / G 10.5 9.9
AST / TO 1.10 1.48
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 55.4%
TOV% 17.6% 15.8%
ORB% 31.5% 29.3%
FT Rate 25.1% 25.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.1% 50.5%
Opp TOV% 19.5% 18.2%
DRB% 74.4% 72.9%
Opp FT Rate 21.8% 22.8%

Game Analysis

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