Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UCLA -5000 UNCA +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +33 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -18.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -15.6 (+17.4) | 138.5 (+0.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -16.4 (+16.6) | 136.4 (+2.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -15.4 (+17.6) | 136.4 (+2.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -14.9 (+18.1) | 135.8 (+3.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 16-2 |
| Home | 17-0 | 13-0 |
| Away | 9-2 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.7 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#3) | 0.9 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#7) | 0.90 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.62 (#8) | 0.89 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#10) | 0.556 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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