Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | KU -190 ARK +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +1 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | KU -2.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -3.4 (-4.4) | 142.7 (+0.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -2.5 (-3.5) | 141.4 (+1.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -3.5 (-4.5) | 143.8 (-0.8) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KU -3.8 (-4.8) | 140.4 (+2.6) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2025 | ARK 79 – 72 KU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 16.7 (#8) | 13.8 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.39 (#3) | 2.00 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#4) | 2.49 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#2) | 0.588 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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