I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
(7) Kansas Jayhawks
72 79
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(10) Arkansas Razorbacks
Amica Mutual Pavilion (Neutral) · March 20, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread KU -5.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money KU -210 / ARK +175
Model Predictions
Spread Total KU win
Actual ARK +7 151 Lost
Massey KU -3.6 (-10.6)
Massey Totals 143.1 (+7.9)
Bradley-Terry 49%
Weighted B-T 50%
Baseline ML KU -3.2 (-10.2) 146.4 (+4.6) 59%
Model 3 ML KU -2.5 (-9.5) 146.6 (+4.4) 58%
Model 4 ML KU -3.5 (-10.5) 145.9 (+5.1) 63%
Baseline Plus ML KU -2.5 (-9.5) 146.4 (+4.6) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 18, 2023 ARK 7271 KU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings KU ARK
Overall 21-13 22-14
Conference 11-9 8-10
Home 14-3 13-4
Away 4-8 4-6
Neutral 3-2 5-4
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 76.1 76.8
Avg Pts Against 69.6 71.4
Massey 17.4 (#17) 13.8 (#36)
Bradley-Terry 2.50 (#35) 2.54 (#33)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.13 (#34) 3.15 (#33)
RPI 0.600 (#21) 0.561 (#61)
Shooting & Four Factors KU ARK
FG% 47.1% 46.6%
3PT% 35.2% 33.3%
REB / G 38.5 35.3
OREB / G 10.5 9.2
AST / TO 1.51 1.24
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.1% 52.7%
TOV% 16.7% 16.5%
ORB% 30.4% 27.6%
FT Rate 17.3% 26.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.2% 48.3%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 17.5%
DRB% 72.5% 71.7%
Opp FT Rate 20.4% 21.3%

Game Analysis

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