Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | KSU -450 MTST +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +12 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -9.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -7.8 (+4.2) | 143.5 (-1.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -7.3 (+4.7) | 140.9 (+1.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -6.2 (+5.8) | 142.6 (-0.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -6.6 (+5.4) | 142.6 (-0.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#22) | 3.6 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#15) | 0.92 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#20) | 0.99 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#50) | 0.563 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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