And of all my friends, you've been the best to me. / Soon will be the day when I repay you handsomely. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
(3) Kansas State Wildcats
77 65
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(14) Montana State Bobcats
First Horizon Coliseum (Neutral) · March 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread KSU -8.5 Home covered
O/U 139.5 Over
Money KSU -450 / MTST +310
Model Predictions
Spread Total KSU win
Actual KSU +12 142 Won
Massey KSU -9.5 (+2.5)
Massey Totals 138.2 (+3.8)
Bradley-Terry 84%
Weighted B-T 88%
Baseline Plus ML KSU -8.7 (+3.3) 144.1 (-2.1) 83%
Model 4 ML KSU -9.4 (+2.6) 141.6 (+0.4) 82%
Model 3 ML KSU -10.5 (+1.5) 143.2 (-1.2) 84%
Baseline ML KSU -9.1 (+2.9) 141.7 (+0.3) 83%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings KSU MTST
Overall 26-10 25-10
Conference 11-7 15-3
Home 16-1 12-1
Away 4-7 10-5
Neutral 6-2 3-4
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.2 70.8
Avg Pts Against 69.9 67.2
Massey 13.0 (#22) 3.6 (#115)
Bradley-Terry 2.55 (#15) 0.92 (#100)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.01 (#20) 0.99 (#104)
RPI 0.571 (#50) 0.563 (#58)
Shooting & Four Factors KSU MTST
FG% 45.3% 45.6%
3PT% 34.0% 32.0%
REB / G 35.6 32.0
OREB / G 10.4 8.0
AST / TO 1.17 0.99
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.5% 50.9%
TOV% 20.0% 17.7%
ORB% 31.1% 25.7%
FT Rate 27.7% 33.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.5% 49.5%
Opp TOV% 20.6% 20.0%
DRB% 70.8% 74.6%
Opp FT Rate 25.4% 26.3%

Game Analysis

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