Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | CREI -500 PRIN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +11 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -9.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -7.2 (+3.8) | 143.1 (+17.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -6.8 (+4.2) | 142.5 (+18.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -6.8 (+4.2) | 142.6 (+18.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -6.5 (+4.5) | 141.4 (+19.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#11) | 6.0 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#30) | 1.06 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#23) | 1.37 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#35) | 0.564 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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