Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -205 SMC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +15 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -3.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -3.6 (+11.4) | 129.5 (-4.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -2.6 (+12.4) | 128.1 (-3.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -2.7 (+12.3) | 128.8 (-3.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -3.6 (+11.4) | 130.6 (-5.6) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-2 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 60.0 |
| Massey | 18.5 (#5) | 15.3 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#14) | 2.50 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#9) | 3.16 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#25) | 0.622 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 78.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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