Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -275 ORU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +23 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -2.4 (+20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -2.5 (+20.5) | 144.3 (-19.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -4.3 (+18.7) | 142.6 (-17.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -1.6 (+21.4) | 143.2 (-18.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -2.3 (+20.7) | 144.1 (-19.1) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 18-0 |
| Home | 16-0 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 11-4 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#25) | 10.4 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#13) | 2.35 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#14) | 2.60 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#13) | 0.614 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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