Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | IU -130 MIA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +16 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | IU -2.9 (-18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -1.8 (-17.8) | 149.8 (+4.2) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -1.0 (-17.0) | 145.9 (+8.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -1.1 (-17.1) | 148.7 (+5.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IU -2.9 (-18.9) | 146.8 (+7.2) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#23) | 10.2 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#21) | 2.43 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#23) | 3.08 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#29) | 0.597 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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