Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ -260 PRIN +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +15 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | MIZ -4.6 (-19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -4.3 (-19.3) | 147.8 (-6.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -3.7 (-18.7) | 147.4 (-6.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -3.7 (-18.7) | 147.9 (-6.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -4.0 (-19.0) | 146.9 (-5.9) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-4 |
| Home | 16-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#51) | 5.2 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#19) | 0.89 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#29) | 1.10 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#34) | 0.556 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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