Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -600 UVM +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +17 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -10.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -8.7 (+8.3) | 142.7 (-3.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -8.1 (+8.9) | 138.7 (+0.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -8.1 (+8.9) | 141.5 (-2.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -8.2 (+8.8) | 142.1 (-3.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-2 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#14) | 3.7 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#8) | 0.74 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.77 (#7) | 0.59 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#19) | 0.584 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 19.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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