Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | CREI -225 NCSU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -4.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -3.9 (+5.1) | 148.0 (-13.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -3.5 (+5.5) | 146.9 (-11.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -2.8 (+6.2) | 149.7 (-14.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -3.7 (+5.3) | 150.3 (-15.3) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#13) | 10.1 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#41) | 1.96 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#30) | 2.28 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#50) | 0.564 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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