Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -1600 GCU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +12 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -13.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -13.0 (-1.0) | 155.1 (-3.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | GONZ -12.9 (-0.9) | 153.5 (-1.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | GONZ -13.0 (-1.0) | 155.2 (-3.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -13.1 (-1.1) | 153.0 (-1.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#7) | 4.2 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#5) | 0.98 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.04 (#4) | 1.13 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#4) | 0.544 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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