Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ +130 CONN -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +28 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -2.0 (-26.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -1.9 (-26.1) | 154.7 (-18.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -2.1 (-25.9) | 152.5 (-16.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -1.4 (-26.6) | 152.3 (-16.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -1.7 (-26.3) | 152.4 (-16.4) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2024 | CONN 77 – 71 GONZ |
| Dec 16, 2023 | CONN 76 – 63 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 31-8 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#7) | 19.4 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.36 (#3) | 2.73 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.16 (#1) | 3.69 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#3) | 0.603 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.0% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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