Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | CONN +160 GONZ -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -9.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -6.8 (+12.8) | 149.2 (-1.2) | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -5.4 (+11.4) | 145.5 (+2.5) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -5.5 (+11.5) | 150.0 (-2.0) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -5.2 (+11.2) | 151.3 (-3.3) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | CONN 76 – 63 GONZ |
| Mar 26, 2023 | CONN 82 – 54 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#17) | 25.3 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#63) | 3.08 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#51) | 4.60 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#130) | 0.703 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.94 | 2.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 12.4% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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