Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ +155 CONN -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +13 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -4.8 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -3.8 (-9.2) | 145.0 (-6.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -4.6 (-8.4) | 144.2 (-5.2) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -3.2 (-9.8) | 145.6 (-6.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -3.4 (-9.6) | 147.0 (-8.0) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2024 | CONN 77 – 71 GONZ |
| Mar 26, 2023 | CONN 82 – 54 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 18-2 |
| Home | 13-2 | 17-0 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 12-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W13 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#25) | 17.1 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#37) | 3.33 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#35) | 4.89 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#48) | 0.636 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 41.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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