Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -250 AUB +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +17 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -8.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (+18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -7.3 (+9.7) | 129.8 (+15.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -7.0 (+10.0) | 127.0 (+18.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -7.8 (+9.2) | 129.7 (+15.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -7.6 (+9.4) | 129.4 (+15.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2025 | HOU 73 – 72 AUB |
| Nov 10, 2024 | AUB 74 – 69 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 11-0 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 20.6 (#2) | 12.4 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#2) | 1.98 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.39 (#1) | 2.48 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#3) | 0.587 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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