Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -225 AUB +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -1.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -1.4 (-6.4) | 136.4 (+6.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -1.0 (-6.0) | 138.3 (+4.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -0.9 (-5.9) | 142.1 (+0.9) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2025 | HOU 73 – 72 AUB |
| Mar 18, 2023 | HOU 81 – 64 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 15-3 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 10-0 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 18.8 (#2) | 17.1 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#146) | 1.36 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#125) | 2.47 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#76) | 1.000 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 58.2% | 56.2% |
| 3PT% | 60.0% | 45.7% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.11 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 67.2% | 68.8% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 39.3% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 10.4% | 9.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 31.9% | 30.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 31.3% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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