Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | AUB +260 HOU -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -1.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -1.6 (-2.6) | 136.4 (+8.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -0.2 (-0.8) | 135.6 (+9.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -1.0 (-2.0) | 135.1 (+9.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -0.9 (-1.9) | 134.4 (+10.6) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2024 | AUB 74 – 69 HOU |
| Mar 18, 2023 | HOU 81 – 64 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#42) | 8.7 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#39) | 1.45 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#40) | 2.21 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#84) | 0.625 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 48.7 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 19.3 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 49.6% | 39.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 13.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 39.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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