Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -1400 PRIN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +4 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | ARIZ -12.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-43.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -9.6 (-13.6) | 154.7 (-40.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -9.2 (-13.2) | 152.1 (-38.1) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -8.2 (-12.2) | 152.7 (-38.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -9.1 (-13.1) | 152.7 (-38.7) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 16.7 (#8) | 4.7 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#10) | 0.68 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#13) | 0.89 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#7) | 0.544 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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