Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -200 VCU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +12 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -6.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -3.6 (+8.4) | 129.0 (-15.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -4.6 (+7.4) | 125.4 (-11.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -4.2 (+7.8) | 127.0 (-13.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -4.0 (+8.0) | 129.4 (-15.4) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 15-3 |
| Home | 16-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 6-2 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#11) | 8.8 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#19) | 1.82 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#15) | 2.05 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#9) | 0.595 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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