Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -10000 NKU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +11 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -21.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -16.2 (-5.2) | 123.6 (-8.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -16.4 (-5.4) | 122.3 (-7.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -15.5 (-4.5) | 126.0 (-11.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -16.5 (-5.5) | 124.1 (-9.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 11-0 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 64.7 |
| Massey | 20.9 (#2) | -0.0 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#2) | 0.22 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.37 (#1) | 0.34 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#3) | 0.537 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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