In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
(1) Houston Cougars
63 52
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(16) Northern Kentucky Norse
Legacy Arena at BJCC (Neutral) · March 17, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread HOU -19.5 Away covered
O/U 122.5 Under
Money HOU -10000 / NKU +1600
Model Predictions
Spread Total HOU win
Actual HOU +11 115 Won
Massey HOU -21.0 (-10.0)
Massey Totals 115.8 (-0.8)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 98%
Baseline Plus ML HOU -18.3 (-7.3) 126.1 (-11.1) 90%
Model 4 ML HOU -19.6 (-8.6) 122.5 (-7.5) 90%
Model 3 ML HOU -19.8 (-8.8) 123.8 (-8.8) 90%
Baseline ML HOU -20.4 (-9.4) 123.1 (-8.1) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HOU NKU
Overall 33-4 22-13
Conference 17-1 14-6
Home 16-2 14-3
Away 11-0 6-6
Neutral 6-2 2-4
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.9 66.7
Avg Pts Against 57.5 64.7
Massey 20.9 (#2) -0.0 (#168)
Bradley-Terry 3.47 (#2) 0.22 (#152)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.37 (#1) 0.34 (#146)
RPI 0.637 (#3) 0.537 (#97)
Shooting & Four Factors HOU NKU
FG% 46.2% 42.6%
3PT% 34.5% 35.2%
REB / G 38.8 31.9
OREB / G 12.8 10.8
AST / TO 1.49 1.17
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.7% 49.8%
TOV% 15.3% 17.5%
ORB% 37.1% 31.3%
FT Rate 20.5% 19.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 42.5% 51.3%
Opp TOV% 22.0% 23.2%
DRB% 72.6% 67.2%
Opp FT Rate 24.7% 21.7%

Game Analysis

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