You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
(4) Tennessee Volunteers
65 52
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(5) Duke Blue Devils
Kia Center (Neutral) · March 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread DUKE -3.5 Home covered
O/U 126.5 Under
Money TENN +155 / DUKE -175
Model Predictions
Spread Total TENN win
Actual TENN +13 117 Won
Massey TENN -5.2 (+7.8)
Massey Totals 122.0 (-5.0)
Bradley-Terry 41%
Weighted B-T 43%
Baseline Plus ML TENN -3.5 (+9.5) 127.7 (-10.7) 65%
Model 4 ML TENN -4.2 (+8.8) 124.8 (-7.8) 56%
Model 3 ML TENN -3.0 (+10.0) 127.8 (-10.8) 65%
Baseline ML TENN -4.1 (+8.9) 129.1 (-12.1) 68%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TENN DUKE
Overall 25-11 27-9
Conference 11-7 14-6
Home 14-2 16-0
Away 4-6 4-6
Neutral 7-3 7-3
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.8 72.0
Avg Pts Against 57.9 63.6
Massey 18.6 (#4) 13.5 (#18)
Bradley-Terry 2.36 (#22) 2.73 (#12)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.98 (#21) 3.24 (#13)
RPI 0.606 (#16) 0.616 (#10)
Shooting & Four Factors TENN DUKE
FG% 43.7% 45.2%
3PT% 32.8% 33.7%
REB / G 38.6 38.9
OREB / G 12.8 12.2
AST / TO 1.38 1.24
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.3% 51.1%
TOV% 18.5% 18.1%
ORB% 36.5% 36.3%
FT Rate 22.2% 23.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 42.5% 46.0%
Opp TOV% 22.1% 16.6%
DRB% 73.3% 74.2%
Opp FT Rate 24.7% 18.1%

Game Analysis

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