Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | TENN +155 DUKE -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +13 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -5.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -2.5 (+10.5) | 128.1 (-11.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -3.4 (+9.6) | 126.1 (-9.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -3.0 (+10.0) | 127.7 (-10.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -3.1 (+9.9) | 127.7 (-10.7) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.9 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 18.6 (#4) | 13.5 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#22) | 2.73 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#21) | 3.24 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#16) | 0.616 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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