Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -800 KENN +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -11.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -9.1 (-4.1) | 151.0 (-12.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -10.5 (-5.5) | 149.2 (-10.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -9.2 (-4.2) | 150.9 (-11.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -8.3 (-3.3) | 150.0 (-11.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | KENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#16) | 2.0 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#17) | 1.40 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#10) | 1.23 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#20) | 0.574 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | KENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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