You have to let that raga drop. "Rock the Casbah" - The Clash
(5) San Diego State Aztecs
72 71
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(9) Florida Atlantic Owls
NRG Stadium (Neutral) · April 1, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -2.0 Away covered
O/U 130.5 Over
Money SDSU -140 / FAU +118
Model Predictions
Spread Total SDSU win
Actual SDSU +1 143 Won
Massey SDSU -0.4 (+0.6)
Massey Totals 132.3 (+10.7)
Bradley-Terry 39%
Weighted B-T 42%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -1.2 (-0.2) 131.8 (+11.2) 69%
Model 4 ML SDSU -3.1 (-2.1) 131.8 (+11.2) 68%
Model 3 ML SDSU -0.3 (+0.7) 131.3 (+11.7) 55%
Baseline ML SDSU -0.7 (+0.3) 130.9 (+12.1) 64%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SDSU FAU
Overall 32-7 35-4
Conference 15-3 18-2
Home 15-1 17-0
Away 8-2 11-3
Neutral 9-4 7-1
Last 5 5-0 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.5 77.2
Avg Pts Against 63.6 65.6
Massey 14.0 (#15) 13.6 (#16)
Bradley-Terry 2.97 (#8) 3.43 (#2)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.28 (#13) 3.62 (#9)
RPI 0.649 (#2) 0.631 (#6)
Shooting & Four Factors SDSU FAU
FG% 43.9% 46.3%
3PT% 33.9% 36.5%
REB / G 36.3 38.8
OREB / G 10.8 10.9
AST / TO 1.10 1.23
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.6% 54.3%
TOV% 17.3% 16.9%
ORB% 31.7% 31.5%
FT Rate 24.1% 21.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.3% 45.9%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 17.8%
DRB% 74.1% 74.8%
Opp FT Rate 21.9% 19.3%

Game Analysis

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