Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -140 FAU +118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +1 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -0.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -0.5 (+1.5) | 132.4 (+10.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -1.2 (-0.2) | 132.8 (+10.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -0.6 (+1.6) | 132.6 (+10.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -0.4 (+1.4) | 131.3 (+11.7) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 18-2 |
| Home | 15-1 | 17-0 |
| Away | 8-2 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#15) | 13.6 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#8) | 3.43 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#13) | 3.62 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#2) | 0.631 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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