Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
(1) Alabama Crimson Tide
64 71
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(5) San Diego State Aztecs
KFC Yum! Center (Neutral) · March 24, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread ALA -6.5 Away covered
O/U 137.5 Under
Money ALA -350 / SDSU +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total ALA win
Actual SDSU +7 135 Lost
Massey ALA -7.7 (-14.7)
Massey Totals 142.6 (-7.6)
Bradley-Terry 71%
Weighted B-T 75%
Baseline Plus ML ALA -6.8 (-13.8) 139.4 (-4.4) 65%
Model 4 ML ALA -6.5 (-13.5) 141.7 (-6.7) 68%
Model 3 ML ALA -7.6 (-14.6) 140.3 (-5.3) 77%
Baseline ML ALA -6.9 (-13.9) 140.9 (-5.9) 61%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ALA SDSU
Overall 31-6 32-7
Conference 16-2 15-3
Home 15-0 15-1
Away 9-3 8-2
Neutral 7-3 9-4
Last 5 5-0 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 81.8 70.5
Avg Pts Against 68.3 63.6
Massey 21.3 (#1) 13.5 (#16)
Bradley-Terry 3.64 (#1) 2.74 (#11)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.18 (#2) 3.08 (#17)
RPI 0.666 (#1) 0.639 (#4)
Shooting & Four Factors ALA SDSU
FG% 44.6% 44.3%
3PT% 34.1% 34.0%
REB / G 44.4 35.9
OREB / G 12.9 10.5
AST / TO 1.09 1.11
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.7% 50.2%
TOV% 18.6% 17.5%
ORB% 34.0% 31.6%
FT Rate 26.7% 24.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 41.3% 46.9%
Opp TOV% 15.8% 19.4%
DRB% 72.3% 74.7%
Opp FT Rate 23.3% 22.0%

Game Analysis

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