Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -350 SDSU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -7.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -5.7 (-12.7) | 139.5 (-4.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -4.4 (-11.4) | 139.3 (-4.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -4.5 (-11.5) | 139.1 (-4.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -5.2 (-12.2) | 138.4 (-3.4) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-0 | 15-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 21.3 (#1) | 13.5 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.64 (#1) | 2.74 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.18 (#2) | 3.08 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.666 (#1) | 0.639 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 44.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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