Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | MARQ -180 MSU +152 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +9 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -3.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -3.9 (-12.9) | 145.3 (-16.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -2.9 (-11.9) | 140.2 (-11.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -3.5 (-12.5) | 144.5 (-15.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -3.7 (-12.7) | 144.5 (-15.5) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 11-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#14) | 11.5 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#8) | 2.05 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.78 (#6) | 2.62 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#19) | 0.584 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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